It's not one date.
It's already three problems.

The arrival of Q-Day will not be a single, datable event — and waiting for it to be announced is the wrong frame entirely. Three independent pressures already oblige every regulated organisation to migrate, regardless of when Q-Day actually lands.

Threat 1

Harvest now, decrypt later

Adversaries already exfiltrate encrypted traffic and archives, planning to decrypt them after Q-Day. Long-shelf-life data is at risk today.

Threat 2

Regulatory deadlines

NIST FIPS 203/204/205 are finalised. CNSA 2.0 mandates PQC by 2030. NIS2 and DORA make cryptographic governance auditable today.

Threat 3

Cryptographic blindness

Few organisations have a complete cryptographic inventory across transit, runtime and at-rest. You cannot migrate what you cannot see.

Roadmap

The Q-Day roadmap, four checkpoints.

2026
Today
Begin inventory, set up scoring, plan migration windows.
2027
Inventory
Complete CBOM. Tier 1 hardening shipped. Crypto-agility in place.
2031
High-risk
Tier 2 hybrid PQC across all critical paths. Long-shelf-life data re-encrypted.
2036
Full PQC
Tier 3 across the estate. ML-KEM / ML-DSA everywhere. Maintenance mode.

Mosca's inequality,
plain language.

If the time you need to migrate your cryptography (tp), plus the time your data must remain confidential (td), is greater than the time until Q-Day arrives (tq), then your data is already at risk — even if Q-Day is decades away.

For most regulated organisations, tp is measured in years, td in decades, and tq is conservatively a single decade. The arithmetic rarely flatters anyone.

MOSCA INEQUALITY
tp + td > tq
MIGRATE TIME · SHELF LIFE · TIME TO Q-DAY
What you can do today

Five concrete steps before next quarter.

1 · Build a cryptographic inventory

You cannot manage what you cannot see. ResilQ delivers a CBOM in 72 hours.

2 · Adopt crypto-agility

Decouple algorithm choice from application code. Make rotation a configuration change, not a release.

3 · Enable hybrid PQC where supported

Modern OpenSSH (with sntrup761x25519) and modern TLS stacks already support hybrid PQC. Turn it on.

4 · Re-encrypt long-shelf-life archives

Tape and cold-storage archives are the worst HNDL targets. Plan re-keying with quantum-safe wrapping.

5 · Brief your audit committee

QARS-NI gives you a single, defensible number for the conversation. Use it.

6 · Subscribe to NIST & ETSI updates

Standards are evolving quickly. ResilQ tracks them so you don't have to.

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